strokes gained

our two best derivative bets for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines

The best value play for top-10 markets, top-40 markets

Farmers Insurance Open prediction

Tony Finau watches his tee shot on the 12th hole during the second round of the Houston Open golf tournament, Friday, Nov. 11, 2022, in Houston. The Associated Press

The Farmers Insurance Open gets underway Wednesday from Torrey Pines, and we’re here to offer some PGA Tour predictions for the event.

Having already outlined our two favorite outright selections for the event, we now transition into the derivative markets. By applying my statistical modeling (see below) and relevant course history, I’ve landed on two players that show value in respective markets.

Odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at the time of writing.


Before we get to the picks, it’s important to note the statistics I used to construct a model. By doing this, it helps sort the fields and allows me to identify the best batch. Here’s the model:

  • Strokes-Gained: Off The Tee (10%) & Driving Distance (5%)
  • Strokes-Gained: Approach (15%), Proximity: 175-200 yards (5%), Proximity: 200+ yards (5%)
  • Greens in Regulation Gained (10%) & Strokes-Gained: Short Game (5%)
  • Bogey Avoidance (10%)
  • Par 4 Efficiency (10%), Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards (5%)
  • Par 5 Efficiency (10%), Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards (5%), Par 5 Efficiency: 600-650 yards (5%)

Farmers Insurance Open Derivative Bet No. 1

Tony Finau Top-10 Finish (Ties Included) (+100)

Not only does Finau rate out quite well in my statistical model, but he owns an excellent history at Torrey Pines.

Although he missed the cut at this event in 2022, Finau posted consecutive top-10 finishes at the 2020 and 2021 versions of this tournament. Expand the sample to include the three prior tournaments and bettors will find he’s recorded a top-10 finish in four of his past five in which he made the cut.


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